Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
74%+12.1pp
Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.
GPT-5
OpenAI
45%-17.0pp
Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
71%+9.8pp
Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.
Grok 4
xAI
57%-4.5pp
Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.
Llama 4 405B
Meta
75%+12.9pp
Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.
Cross-venue prices
Movement
$48,200 YES filled on Polymarket
$48.2kon polymarketClaude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp
Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min
Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance
$21,500 NO filled on Kalshi
$21.5kon kalshiGPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling
Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle
$25,000 YES filled on Limitless
$18.0kon limitless
Embed
Embed this market
Live, auto-refreshing. Free with attribution.
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/ai-passes-bar-exam-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="ai-passes-bar-exam-2026" variant="card" />Related markets
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →