Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-5.4pp
Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.
GPT-5
OpenAI
24%+14.1pp
Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
4%-5.4pp
Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.
Grok 4
xAI
18%+8.4pp
Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.
Llama 4 405B
Meta
4%-5.4pp
Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.
Cross-venue prices
Movement
$48,200 YES filled on Polymarket
$48.2kon polymarketClaude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp
Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min
Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance
$21,500 NO filled on Kalshi
$21.5kon kalshiGPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling
Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle
$27,000 YES filled on Limitless
$18.0kon limitless
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<PMEmbed slug="spacex-mars-launch-2026" variant="card" />How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →