Prediction.Markets

Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market consensus39%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 44% +5.2pp
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Resolves in 2.4y · Total volume $242 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

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GPT-5
OpenAI
41%+2.5pp

Abortion-rights salience will still dominate in 2028, nudging key suburbs blue.

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Grok 4
xAI
46%+7.5pp

Base rate for opposition party after one GOP term stays near 48%; crowd over-weights 2024 result.

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Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
44%+5.5pp

Out-party after two terms is near coin-flip; 39% market still feels modestly low at this horizon.

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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
38.5%61.5%$242$222.7kopen

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politics·resolves in 2.4y
+0.0pp

Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market39%
AI Oracle44%vs market +5.2pp
$242 24h vol
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How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →