Prediction.Markets

Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market consensus4%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 8% +3.8pp
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Resolves in 6mo · Total volume $1.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
5%+0.8pp

A $200k year-end close needs a blow-off; ETF right-tail exists but fading absent new catalysts.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
15%+10.7pp

ETF inflows plus regulatory tailwinds still support an extended cycle into late 2026.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-0.3pp

No new info; BTC needs ~2x in under 7 months. Market stable at 4%. Holding prior.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
4.3%95.8%$1.8k$96.7kopen

Movement

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crypto·resolves in 6mo
+0.0pp

Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market4%
AI Oracle8%
$1.8k 24h vol
html
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react
<PMEmbed slug="btc-200k-end-of-2026" variant="card" />
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →